Insights

Markets

The bank panic could trigger a special type of downturn

Barron’s | Stephen Miran | March 17, 2023

The implosion of Silicon Valley Bank and the resulting damage to the regional banking system could cause a deleveraging process that will restrain economic growth in the months ahead.

Markets

The economy is less sensitive to interest rates. The Fed has further to go.

Barron’s

Stephen Miran

March 11, 2023

There are a number of important indications that the U.S. economy may be less sensitive to interest rates than has historically been the case, which could force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates higher than many expect.

economic policy

Will demand for housing continue to grow?

National Review

Stephen Miran

March 8, 2023

The interaction between inflation and tax policy may create tailwinds to the housing sector, with important implications for monetary policy.

Markets

The recession has gone missing

Barron’s

Stephen Miran

February 10, 2023

Many economists expected recession in 2023. The key to the missing recession may be found in construction employment.

economic policy

The hen shouldn't lay the platinum coin

National Review

Stephen Miran

February 2, 2023

Treasury market stability is premised on principal debt repaid through taxation and growth, not through dubious schemes to create money.

Economic policy

Changing the Fed's inflation target now would be a disaster

Barron’s

Stephen Miran

December 13, 2022

The Federal Reserve's already-weak credibility may be irreparably damaged if it were to change its inflation target.

Markets

The dollar's bull run isn't over

Barron’s

Stephen Miran

November 7, 2022

Market hopes for a pivot by the Federal Reserve are likely misplaced, which could drive an extension of the U.S. dollar's bull run in 2022.

National Security

Russia occupies American land, too

Wall Street Journal

Tom Dans

November 4, 2022

Though Russia's invasions of its neighbors in Europe is fresh in our minds, most have forgotten that Russia also forcibly ousted the United States from Wrangel Island in the 1920s.

Economic Policy

Censorship is a consumer harm

Wall Street Journal

Stephen Miran

October 11, 2022

Viewpoint censorship is typically regarded as a First Amendment issue. However, economists should increasingly recognize that political censorship by technology platforms is causing consumer harm, creating a strong basis in antitrust for addressing overreach by Big Tech.

economic policy

Why ESG can't be completely abandoned

National Review

Dan Katz

September 30, 2022

Taking account of ESG risks is sensible. However, markets must place these risks in context, including by increasing focus on other important risks, like supply chain security.

Markets

Say goodbye to the era of low volatility

Barron’s

Stephen Miran

September 9, 2022

The post-Cold War trends of ever increasing globalization and integration are likely to continue to reverse in the post-Covid era, driving volatility in financial markets.

Markets

The economy isn't in a significant downturn yet, but it will be soon

National Review

Stephen Miran

September 2, 2022

The cumulative impact of the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle may well tip the United States into a recession in 2023.

Economic Policy

The Inflation Reduction Act won't reduce inflation

Wall Street Journal

Stephen Miran

July 31, 2022

The absurdly named "Inflation Reduction Act" is more likely to do the opposite, fueling additional inflation through further distortions of the supply side of the economy.

Markets

Markets have ESG tunnel vision

Barron’s

Dan Katz

May 27, 2022

Overemphasis on ESG relative to other important considerations, like supply chain and energy security, is limiting the efficiency of markets.

National security

The IMF must ensure that Russia cannot access its financial lifeline

The Hill

Dan Katz

March 5, 2022

In the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the International Monetary Fund must take action to ensure that Russia cannot benefit from resources available to IMF members.

National Security

The West needs political will to win the economic war with Russia

Barron’s

Dan Katz

March 2, 2022

If the United States wants to rely on economic sanctions to roll back the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it needs to be honest about the costs and must be prepared to bear them over the long term.

Economic policy

The capital markets can help heal the supply chain

RealClear Markets

Stephen Miran

February 11, 2022

Increased investor focus on supply chain security can help improve the security of U.S. supply chains over time.

National Security

A fight for Ukraine's borders could maul American's own

The Hill

Tom Dans

February 11, 2022

Unsettled border claims in the Arctic between the U.S. and Russia could have significant implications for the ongoing crisis over Ukraine's borders.

Economic policy

OECD tax revamp should not forget China

Bloomberg Tax

Stephen Miran

February 10, 2022

A revamp of global tax rules should not favor state-owned enterprises, which would benefit non-market economies like China.

Economic Policy

Where did that IMF Covid money go?

Wall Street Journal

Dan Katz

November 29, 2021

The International Monetary Fund claimed its members' money would go to poor countries struggling with economic damage from Covid. However, so far it mainly looks to be going to virtue signaling.

Markets

The wine market is bubbling. Why inflation may be here to stay.

Barron’s

Dan Katz

October 13, 2021

Recent excesses in the financial markets have been mirrored in the wine markets, which area also telling us that inflation may not be "transitory" after all.

National Security

Under Biden, the United States could fall further behind in the Arctic

The Hill

Tom Dans

October 1, 2021

The United States is ignoring its important security interests in the Arctic, which is rapidly becoming an increasingly important geopolitical theater.

Economic Policy

Central banks are risking their independence

Bloomberg

Dan Katz

August 23, 2021

Central bankers risk losing their hard-won independence by straying beyond their narrow inflation and employment mandates by jumping into areas that are best left to elected policymakers.

Economic Policy

The trillion-dollar infrastructure bill will fuel inflation

Wall Street Journal

Stephen Miran

August 8, 2021

Even if the infrastructure bill helps ease supply constraints in the long run, in the short term it will help fuel U.S. inflation.

Economic Policy

The inflation tax on capital

Wall Street Journal

Stephen Miran

July 18, 2021

Higher inflation and capital gains taxes will significantly reduce returns on investment, and consequently, economic growth.

Economic Policy

Airlines don't need to be saved by taxpayers again

Bloomberg

Dan Katz

April 12, 2021

Taxpayers rightly acted to save the airline industry during the height of the economic crisis from Covid in 2020. But additional support to an industry that is already in recovery is a waste of resources.

Economic Policy

Time for a second round of PPP

Wall Street Journal

Stephen Miran

December 17, 2020

With Covid cases spiking heading into the winter, Congress should act to preserve jobs through a second round of the Paycheck Protection Program.

Economic Policy

The job-preservation effects of the Paycheck Protection Program

Treasury Working Paper

Stephen Miran

December 16, 2020

The Paycheck Protection Program preserved tens of millions of jobs in 2020.

Insights

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