Amberwave Partners is an alternative asset manager launched in 2021 focused on global macro investing. Amberwave seeks to generate alpha by synthesizing economic fundamental, relative value, policy, geopolitical, and market analysis in order position for directional shifts as a result of global macro trends and dislocations.
In a rapidly evolving global economy, judgment and clarity are paramount.
The global economy is undergoing a fundamental shift from the low volatility, low inflation, increasingly globalized paradigm of the post-Cold War era. Major economic forces including geopolitical competition between the United States and China and the revival of aggressive fiscal and monetary policy are secular trends that will drive volatility in inflation and macro markets beyond the levels experienced in recent decades. This renewed volatility creates the opportunity for skilled macro managers to generate alpha by identifying mispriced financial markets and coming macro dislocations.
Major policy trends are driving volatility, creating opportunities for alpha
Cyclical policy causes volatility
Aggressive monetary and fiscal policy have resulted in a dramatic overshoot of the 2% inflation target, which will fuel volatility for years given policy lags and bullwhip cycles.
National security needs have forged new consensuses on industrial, trade, and antitrust policies. Nations will no longer allow crucial industrial inputs to be produced by adversaries who might withhold them without warning, and will push back on companies that have become so big they stifle dynamism and innovation.
Strategic policy causes volatility
Geopolitical policy causes volatility
Durable market edge from understanding the macro mosaic
Thematic global macro investing requires marrying views on economics and policy with unstable market equilibria to harvest asset pricing dislocations. We focus heavily on liquidity, using quantitative and qualitative tools to assemble positions with significant convexity to optimize risk and reward.